Three Lessons on Harnessing the Butterfly Effect for Impact

The Butterfly Effect: How Small Actions Catalysed Big Change

People often rewrite their life stories to fit their identities—just as companies reframe successes as strategic triumphs. In ethnography, we see this too: communities reshape narratives to align with societal expectations. But sometimes, unexpected connections rewrite the story entirely.

In 2024, Trinetra was shortlisted for a PRI Award for our work with Alsea, a Mexican firm employing 75,000 across brands like Starbucks and Burger King. Yet nothing would’ve happened without an embedded study of migrant workers in Karnataka’s coffee plantations. How? The butterfly effect: small actions triggering outsized outcomes.

Here’s how we harnessed it—and three lessons we learned.

Lesson 1: Create New Knowledge—Even in Unlikely Places

Change requires fresh insights. Rehashing existing data invites dismissal. To understand India’s migrant workers, we skipped urban slums (our usual focus) and partnered with Third Eye, an ethnographic firm, for an embedded study in Karnataka’s coffee plantations. For five days, we observed workers who transitioned from informal to formal roles.

Source: Trinetra

The surprise? Money wasn’t the primary driver. While incomes rose 11-fold, workers valued something else: community. They brought families, balancing work and caregiving—a flexibility absent in higher-paying city jobs. This revealed a truth: informality isn’t just a supply issue; it’s about identity and values.

This insight became the foundation for our work with Alsea. By prioritizing human-cantered research over spreadsheets, we unlocked solutions for labour inclusivity in Latin America.

Lesson 2: Break Silos—Find Allies on the Same Journey

Transformative change demands collaboration. From Third Eye’s ethnographers to Cambridge anthropologist Alejandro Porcel, to Fundación Alsea, each partner expanded our perspective.

Source: Trinetra

Alsea allowed Alejandro so study the lives of their employees through semi-structured interviews, where they discussed what was important to them instead of what managements traditionally want to ask in employee surveys. The research  uncovered a parallel to Karnataka: the happiest workers at Alsea found a community within the workplace. A community provides support, security and an opportunity to build skills.

With Fundación Alsea’s team, we turned this insight into action. Their grassroots reach ensured research didn’t gather dust—it fuelled a pilot program for young women from vulnerable backgrounds.

Lesson 3: Impact Is Your Compass—Don’t Stop at Outputs

Source: Trinetra

Chaos is inevitable when investing with a long term horizon. A Theory of Change (ToC) keeps you grounded. Our PRI nomination was validating, but real impact meant pushing further.

The report Beyond Wages led to a pilot training program at Alsea’s Vips restaurants. Today, its first ten young women from disadvantaged communities are employed. And this started because halfway across the planet in India, migrant workers were open to share their experiences on shifting to formal work employment.

Final Takeaway: Navigating Chaos with Purpose

In a volatile world, the butterfly effect isn’t just luck—it’s curiosity, collaboration, and commitment. To replicate it:

1.    Seek unconventional insights (like Karnataka’s plantations).

2.    Partner across disciplines (finance + anthropology = extends your investment horizon by allowing you to see further).

3.    Measure success by impact, not accolades.

The hurricane of change starts with a single flap. Where will yours begin?

 Trinetra Investment Management disclaimer: This material has been prepared by Trinetra Investment Management LLP (“Trinetra”) for information purposes only and it is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast or research. While the information herein is considered to be correct, no representation or warranty can be given on the ultimate accuracy or completeness of such information.

Unless otherwise specified, all views expressed are those of Trinetra. These views reflect current economic and market conditions, which are subject to change.

This material, or any views or opinions expressed herein, does not amount to an investment advice nor does it constitute a solicitation or a recommendation to buy, sell or invest in any financial product, investment structure or instrument, to enter into or unwind any transaction or to participate in any particular trading strategy.